georgiafan
Hall of Famer
Donny Moore tweeted this speed ratings are based off real 40 times with age regression built it.
All Madden16 ratings from EA
- Thread starter georgiafan
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woodsmall12
All-Star
I was wondering if Regression was a factor in the formula ... 40 times from the combine w regression built in starting at a certain age? Makes sense to the thought process however not every player regresses at the same age and not every player will regress as much
J. Charles will be 29 in Dec - 4.38 @ combine
C. Johnson will be 30 in Sept - 4.35 @ combine
M. Lynch will be 30 in April - 4.46 @ combine
Still leaves questions how some players end up where they do
His "formula" lmao. So I'm curious exactly when "in his mind" does regression set in?? Desean Jackson is only 28 and Percy Harvin is only 27
What are they rated and what are their ACC ratings? We were taking about this on Twitch last night. Perriman has 97 SPD but 90 ACC. Adrian Peterson has 90 SPD and 97 ACC. To me they are basically the same. Considering 95% of plays are 20 yards or less, I'd probably rather have the ACC. If most of the young players have low ACC and the vets have high ACC, I think it's splitting hairs. I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference. Not sure why they chose that route but I do think that helps offset some of the fears guys are experiencing.
You might think so. But the point about the age regression model is interesting. It sounds like he was trying to gauge the rate that players slow and build it in to try and mimic what he thought we would see about the upcoming season. For sure it's an inexact science and one that's open to criticism. But at the same time I kind of applaud the fact that he was trying to do more than just plug in ratings from last year.
One thing is for certain. It's impossible for one guy to be an expert on every team and every player in the game. I know from my experience doing NCAA rosters that the vast majority of my ratings came from reports from guys like Phil Steele and NFL Draft Scout. You just can't watch tape on 1500+ players. Mistakes are bound to be made. But the shift in lower SPD for the vets probably could have come with some explanation to offset the panic haha.
One thing is for certain. It's impossible for one guy to be an expert on every team and every player in the game. I know from my experience doing NCAA rosters that the vast majority of my ratings came from reports from guys like Phil Steele and NFL Draft Scout. You just can't watch tape on 1500+ players. Mistakes are bound to be made. But the shift in lower SPD for the vets probably could have come with some explanation to offset the panic haha.
priestmvp
Starter
You would think though they would be pretty familiar with say the top 5 deep threats in the national football league in regards to tinkering with speed lol so I dunno was thinking ok wrong or right maybe it's his idea of players regressing but when you are talking about 28yoa players I sure hope that's not regression otherwise I'm scared to see these guys after the first in game regression after season 1 in s cfm lol Maybe things like acc and agility with make a big impact with some of these guys helping bridge the gap.
Paytonno1son
Hall of Famer
I hate math
So are you worried that at 30 they are going to dip into the 70s again? What if it is a 1-2 point drop every year? Statistically, most guys are out of the league by 30 though. But the drop last year was crazy. However, I made a vid showing that the difference between a 75 SPD guy and a 99 SPD guy at WR on a majority of routes like ins, outs, curls and even slants and drags was minimal at best.
I finally download the spreadsheet and took a look and I do see where a lot of the confusion comes in. It does look like quite a few veteran guys took a speed hit while a lot of young, unproven guys are really fast. I try not to just make assumptions on things I think are real bc often I'm influenced by other factors that may not even be accurate. So I took a look at a few of the guys that have been the most controversial.
For the sake of this comparison, I don't think there is a significant difference between 97 SPD and 93 ACC and 92 SPD and 93 ACC. Its minimal and we're splitting hairs trying to say this guy is faster than this guy. We really don't know. 92-93 SPD can blow the top off a defense and outrun the occasional defender if they get in space. So I'll focus on guys that have taken the biggest hits and are under 92 SPD.
Calvin Johnson - 89 SPD, 89 ACC
To be honest, after watching his 2014 highlights, I don't see him running away from anyone. Maybe he has slowed as he's gotten older. I think 89/89 is just about right, if not a little generous considering some of the other guys rated lower.
Jeremy Maclin - 87 SPD, 87 ACC
This one is very confusing. Not only did Maclin set career highs in reception, yards and yards per reception, he's also on video blowing by a guy that EA gave a 92/90 rating to (0:54 in video). The only thing that I can think of is that EA is punishing him for his 2013 ACL injury. But that really doesn't matter after he comes back to put up his best season ever. They just got this one wrong in my opinion. I think he's AT LEAST 91/92.
Antonio Brown - 90 SPD, 91 ACC
I had AB on my fantasy team last year so I watched him A LOT. I thought he was pretty fast and I know Madden had him at like 95-97 SPD. However, after watching the highlight video including some of the plays I remember most, I can live with 90/91. He's very agile and quick but didn't really see him blowing the doors off anyone even in space. This rating is reasonable.
T.Y. Hilton - 92 SPD, 91 ACC
I know I said below 92 SPD but T.Y. has always been thought of as one of the fastest WRs in the game and always had been in Madden so I needed to explore it. While I couldn't find a good video to post, I did watch several of them. I think T.Y. is fast. And the fact that he set a career high in yards and had a 16.4 YPC which was 3 yards better than his previous season says he likely didn't regress. I can probably live with 92/91 but think he should probably be around 93/93 if not better.
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The rest of these guys I can probably live with. I do not think it was ideal to make a bunch of first and second year players the fastest guys in the game. I think T.Y. is probably as fast as Perriman if not faster, at least based on the film I watched. Not that T.Y. necessarily needs to be 97/93 but Perrimian is probably a little high. Maclin is the one guys I really, really feel they got wrong. I can't really find a way to explain. I just think they missed it. But I guess we can live with (or at least we have to) one seemingly really bad rating, a couple that might be off by a point or two and a few rookies that are probably overrated. Its not ideal but I don't think its going to ruin the game (except for the Chiefs lol). That's my take at least.
For the sake of this comparison, I don't think there is a significant difference between 97 SPD and 93 ACC and 92 SPD and 93 ACC. Its minimal and we're splitting hairs trying to say this guy is faster than this guy. We really don't know. 92-93 SPD can blow the top off a defense and outrun the occasional defender if they get in space. So I'll focus on guys that have taken the biggest hits and are under 92 SPD.
Calvin Johnson - 89 SPD, 89 ACC
To be honest, after watching his 2014 highlights, I don't see him running away from anyone. Maybe he has slowed as he's gotten older. I think 89/89 is just about right, if not a little generous considering some of the other guys rated lower.
Jeremy Maclin - 87 SPD, 87 ACC
This one is very confusing. Not only did Maclin set career highs in reception, yards and yards per reception, he's also on video blowing by a guy that EA gave a 92/90 rating to (0:54 in video). The only thing that I can think of is that EA is punishing him for his 2013 ACL injury. But that really doesn't matter after he comes back to put up his best season ever. They just got this one wrong in my opinion. I think he's AT LEAST 91/92.
Antonio Brown - 90 SPD, 91 ACC
I had AB on my fantasy team last year so I watched him A LOT. I thought he was pretty fast and I know Madden had him at like 95-97 SPD. However, after watching the highlight video including some of the plays I remember most, I can live with 90/91. He's very agile and quick but didn't really see him blowing the doors off anyone even in space. This rating is reasonable.
T.Y. Hilton - 92 SPD, 91 ACC
I know I said below 92 SPD but T.Y. has always been thought of as one of the fastest WRs in the game and always had been in Madden so I needed to explore it. While I couldn't find a good video to post, I did watch several of them. I think T.Y. is fast. And the fact that he set a career high in yards and had a 16.4 YPC which was 3 yards better than his previous season says he likely didn't regress. I can probably live with 92/91 but think he should probably be around 93/93 if not better.
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The rest of these guys I can probably live with. I do not think it was ideal to make a bunch of first and second year players the fastest guys in the game. I think T.Y. is probably as fast as Perriman if not faster, at least based on the film I watched. Not that T.Y. necessarily needs to be 97/93 but Perrimian is probably a little high. Maclin is the one guys I really, really feel they got wrong. I can't really find a way to explain. I just think they missed it. But I guess we can live with (or at least we have to) one seemingly really bad rating, a couple that might be off by a point or two and a few rookies that are probably overrated. Its not ideal but I don't think its going to ruin the game (except for the Chiefs lol). That's my take at least.
I read something by pastapadre that said Madden changed its ratings formula to a straight 40 time based model with an age regression model built in. I hadn't seen that but I trust it's true. Since Maclin ran a 4.48 he probably started at a 90-91. Then if he drops a point per year I guess that's how he's an 87. T.Y. Hilton ran a 4.34 at his pro day which is probably a 95. Breshad Perriman ran a 4.26 which is obviously a 97.
So I think we at least now know why they did what they did. I just don't agree with it. On one hand I get it. It's a consistent and simplistic model to apply to 1500+ players. It's very easy to plug the times into the DB and get consistent numbers across the board. On the other hand, were judging guys by combine results (many from several years ago) and not their actual play. I've seen many, many guys run mid-4.4s like Maclin but play MUCH faster. I also COMPLETELY disagree that a player should lose one speed point every year. In some cases (Calvin Johnson) I think it could be accurate. But it just doesn't apply to everyone.
I've used similar models for NCAA but you can't have a one size fits all approach. A model like that is fine for guys that have not had much playing time or haven't really produced yet. On those cases you don't have much to work with. But you have to know who your stars are. You have to know the guys who out perform their 40 times and not punish them bc they had a bad combine or pro day or worked on getting faster since then.
I still think we're splitting hairs for most of the guys as the difference between 92 and 94 isn't huge. But it goes to show that they could have used this model and also tried to identify the Top 10 fastest veterans at each position and adjusted them if necessary. You're talking about an extra hour or two per skill position maybe. I think statistical analysis could have helped in that also. But you have to allow yourself room to deviate from the model for guys that have proven it doesn't apply to them.
I know it's a tough job rating 1500+ players accurately. You just can't base everything off of combine results. You gotta watch some video and incorporate stats. Obviously they do that to a degree bc they have all of the other ratings to plug in. I just don't understand why they decided to switch to this for speed and go solely off of combine numbers and a strict age-based regression model.
So I think we at least now know why they did what they did. I just don't agree with it. On one hand I get it. It's a consistent and simplistic model to apply to 1500+ players. It's very easy to plug the times into the DB and get consistent numbers across the board. On the other hand, were judging guys by combine results (many from several years ago) and not their actual play. I've seen many, many guys run mid-4.4s like Maclin but play MUCH faster. I also COMPLETELY disagree that a player should lose one speed point every year. In some cases (Calvin Johnson) I think it could be accurate. But it just doesn't apply to everyone.
I've used similar models for NCAA but you can't have a one size fits all approach. A model like that is fine for guys that have not had much playing time or haven't really produced yet. On those cases you don't have much to work with. But you have to know who your stars are. You have to know the guys who out perform their 40 times and not punish them bc they had a bad combine or pro day or worked on getting faster since then.
I still think we're splitting hairs for most of the guys as the difference between 92 and 94 isn't huge. But it goes to show that they could have used this model and also tried to identify the Top 10 fastest veterans at each position and adjusted them if necessary. You're talking about an extra hour or two per skill position maybe. I think statistical analysis could have helped in that also. But you have to allow yourself room to deviate from the model for guys that have proven it doesn't apply to them.
I know it's a tough job rating 1500+ players accurately. You just can't base everything off of combine results. You gotta watch some video and incorporate stats. Obviously they do that to a degree bc they have all of the other ratings to plug in. I just don't understand why they decided to switch to this for speed and go solely off of combine numbers and a strict age-based regression model.
priestmvp
Starter
Sounds like a formula a bunch of math geeks would put in place since they would have no clue about any of the players irl. I know it's too much to know everything about every player but you would think they could pretty easily have one "consultant" say for each team who could at least give them some feedback in relation to rating players abilities. It's a shame but it is what it is.
georgiafan
Hall of Famer
At would age would Perriman for example start losing speed on the game ?
mycaddy
Starter
As someone that has literally watched everyone of Calvin Johnson's games as a pro (and a few in college since I was living in Atlanta at the time he was at GT) I can say his speed has declined but I do think he is still faster than many guys rated above him in that category and the age may have something 2 do he is going to turn 30 later this month (August 25th)
Megatron has been hurt a lot but when he was on the field he produced last year he played 13 games and year before only 12 yet still was still top 10 both season in catches, yards and TDs... and keep in mind he was not 100% in several of those games... Even the season he almost got 2000 yards he played every game but was hurt... I think he has a game with 1 catch for 20 yards that season... and still was close to getting 2000 yards on the season.. WHen he plays he produces so his production drop is due to injury not skill level decreasing... If his injury rating drops thats makes sense. It has been 5 seasons since he was healthy for a full season...