Georgiafan's weekly $izzling football picks

georgiafan

Hall of Famer
I am pretty much making this thread for myself but I thought others might be able to get something out of it. I am going to make 5 picks a week vs the spread and that's total with NFL and NCAA games combined. So maybe pack1797 needs some extra beer $ or maybe mycaddy needs to start saving for his daughters wedding. So if that's the case feel free to steal these packs however you want to. I fully expect everyone to give me a hard time on the weeks I go 1 for 5. Sometimes I post a lot of stats to backup my pick while at other times It might just be a gut pick but in general I go with my gut over a bunch of stats.

Incase your new to the word of betting a -7 would mean that team is suppose to win by 7 points. So if that team wins by 6 then you lose $ if they win by 8 and then you win. If its a 7 point spread and the game ends in 7 points then it becomes a push and you only pay the 10%. A +7 would mean that team is suppose to lose by 7. In real life if you bet 50$ then you get 50$ if your team wins. But if they lose then you pay that 50$ plus 10%. Over/Under is the total amount of points projected to be scored by both teams. You could also buy down any game up or down by a half point but if you lose then you pay 20% instead of 10%. The rule of thumb is being at home is worth 3 points

Lousville vs Auburn (lock of the week)
In 2013 under Strong Lousville's defense was the best in the country only allowing 12.3 points a game. When he left for texas my old DC Todd Grantham took over and right off the bat the defense got worse and allowed 21.8 points a game and it will be worse this year. On top of that the defense is going to be less talented this year as it must replace 6 draft picks on defense. I don't expect the talent level on defense to improve as Petrino is known for putting all the athletes on his side of the ball. So the defense will This will be the breakout for new Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson and he will quickly be in the Heisman short list as Auburn rolls past Loisville by atleast 17.
Auburn -10.5

Texas @ Notre Dame
Notre Dame is always over rated and Texas needs to win this game after a bad rookie year. I wouldn't be surprised If texas even wins straight up
Texas +9.5

Washington @ Boise State
Chris Peterson returns to his ol stomping ground and is close to a 2 TD underdog as BSU returns 17 starters. Boise has won 55 of 57 games at home but only 4-3 vs the spread.
Washington +12

Akron @ Oklahoma

Oklahoma typically scores in bunches vs the weak teams so I would be shocked if they don't score 40 while Akron only avg 22 last year and wont get near that this week.
Oklahoma -31

O/U Utep @ Arkansas
Arkansas/Wisconsin is another team that rolls up big points vs weak teams and are wanting to prove they belong in upper tier of SEC. UTEP will score about 14 and that wil be enough to push it over
Over 50
 

georgiafan

Hall of Famer
Yea I shouldn't have added the bonus pick but I got Washington right and looking really good for the Arkansas over
 

georgiafan

Hall of Famer
Ok so I went 3 for 5 the first week and then also missed my bonus pick and then of course missed my lock of the week.

I will post my 5 Tomorrow but I do want to go ahead and post one of them which is New England covering the 7 points vs the steelers.
 

georgiafan

Hall of Famer
Lots of moving parts this week so I am just gonna keep it short and just post the 5 picks going with all favorites this week

Patriots over Steelers -7 (posted before the game)
Clemson over App. State -19 (lock of the week)
Boise St. over BYU -2.5
Oklahoma over Tenn -1
Colts over the Bill -2.5
 
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georgiafan

Hall of Famer
So haven't had time to look at many spreads so just gonna make this quick

South Carolina covers vs uga +17
Don't tell your wife and bet your mortgage, the kids college fund and the Christmas fun In this game and you will not be disappointed. Not been this confident in a game in years and years.

Auburn over lsu +7

49 over Pitt +6.5

Dallas over philly +5

Seattle over packers +3.5
 

georgiafan

Hall of Famer
Auburn over Miss St -2 = auburn due to cover eventually
Ohio State over Western Michigan -33 = Not gonna be 2 close games in a row
Missouri over Kentucky +3 = Missouri wins straight up
TCU over Texas Tech -5 = seems to low I will take the bait
Atlanta over Dallas -1 = No romo or dez and a 1 point spread? (lock of the week)
 

georgiafan

Hall of Famer
Yeah to say I was nervous would be a under statement and oh yea I also had the colts at 2.5 point favorites and got crushed on that one bc that last drive

1 for 5 on the week not good
 

georgiafan

Hall of Famer
Ok so we have been in a bit of a slump, but this is the week we get back on track. With the sportsbook going feel free to steal these and earn some virtual $.

+2 Alabama over Georgia = Georgia's passing game cost them the win (lock of the week)
-7.5 Oregon over Colorado = Oregon gets back on track
+7 Arkansas over Tenn = Ark played better last week and this is a classic trap game for the vols
-2 Clemson over Notre Dame = Luck of the irish runs out and Watson is a household name at the end
+5.5 Giants over Bills = just because
 

georgiafan

Hall of Famer
So we had a awesome week last week going 4-0-1 and the tie being the Clemson game which was a tough won to tie after they blew it late. Was hoping they got the 2 point play so could have got a cover in OT.

Miami over FSU - +8.5 (lock of the week) = gut feel and instate game
South Carolina over LSU +19 = Whats lost in the Fornette man crush going around is LSU QB's are throwing for less then 100 yards per game
TCU over KSU -10 = Seems like a trap
Saints over Eagles +5 = I don't trust the eagles and I get Drew Brees as a underdog
Bears over Chiefs = +9.5 = That's a lot of points in the NFL and the chiefs might not even be a playoff team
 

georgiafan

Hall of Famer
week 1 - 3 for 5
week 2 - 3 for 5
week 3 - 1 for 5
week 4 - 1 for 5
week 5 - 4 for 4 (also 1 push)

Total - 12 for 24 - 50%
lock of the week - 3 for 5
 

georgiafan

Hall of Famer
This weeks picks

Missouri (lock of week]
Michigan state
Ole miss
Saints (already played but had it offline)
Georgia tech
 

georgiafan

Hall of Famer
week 1 - 3 for 5
week 2 - 3 for 5
week 3 - 1 for 5
week 4 - 1 for 5
week 5 - 4 for 4 (also 1 push)
week 6 - 2 for 5
week 7 - 3 for 5

Total - 17 for 34 50%
lock of the week - 5 for 7
 
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